The sports betting landscape has changed dramatically with the rise of legalized wagering across the country. With more states regulating sports gambling, bettors now have unprecedented access to make real-money bets. However, with increased competition comes smaller margins. To gain an edge in today’s market, Scorito bettors need to leverage the power of data.
Understanding Sports Betting Data Science
Sports betting analytics refers to the practice of collecting, processing, and analyzing statistical data to model outcomes and probabilities in the sports wagering market. This gives quantitatively-minded bettors an advantage over the casual fans in Las Vegas.
Data scientists in the sports betting industry draw from a wealth of game, team, and player stats. Granular data points like passes, assists, penalties, possession time, and more can reveal insights about team strengths and weaknesses. Analysts feed these inputs into complex prediction models to determine probabilities and betting lines.
As an individual bettor, you likely won’t have the resources to build algorithms from scratch. However, by understanding some key concepts of sports betting data science, you can make more informed wagers.
Key Data Points for Betting Analysis
While sportsbooks analyze volumes of data, there are a few key statistics that provide significant predictive insights:
Team and Player Metrics
- Points scored/allowed per game
- Shooting percentage
- Assist-to-turnover ratio
Situational Statistics
- Performance on 1+ days rest
- Home/away team performance
- Record against the spread (ATS)
Injuries
- Player injuries/absences
- Minutes restrictions
- Suspensions
Examining trends in these areas over a team’s last 5-10 games can reveal when they are hot or cold. You can then target opportune spots to place wagers.
| Team | Last 5 Games | Points Scored | FG % | ATS Record |
| Bulls | 3-2 | 112 | 46% | 5-0 |
| Grizzlies | 1-4 | 102 | 43% | 1-4 |
Per this sample data, the Bulls have scored more points on higher shooting percentages during a 5-0 ATS run the last five games. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, have struggled in four straight losses against the spread. This suggests betting on the Bulls may hold a positive expected value.
Resources for Betting Analytics
While crunching numbers yourself can be insightful, most bettors turn to expert analytics. Some valuable resources for sports betting data include:
- Betting Modelers – Follow sports betting modelers, like ESPN’s Erin Rynning and Dimers.com, for data-driven picks.
- Sports Analytics Websites – Sites like Pro Football Focus, KenPom, and Baseball Prospectus offer advanced analytics.
- Trends and Databases – Covers.com, Odds Shark, and Sports Insights reveal team and betting trends over time.
- Sportsbooks – Legal sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings also provide stats and odds data to help inform bets.
By combining data from these sources, you can uncover profitable betting opportunities.
Putting Analytics to Work
With an abundance of data, the key is interpreting it effectively. Here are tips for leveraging analytics:
- Find your niche – Don’t spread yourself thin trying to analyze every sport. Focus on 1-2 leagues where you can specialize.
- Spot trends and outliers – Identify when the oddsmakers may be overvalued or undervalued a team during hot/cold stretches.
- Follow the sharps – Tail professional bettors who beat the closing lines at an impressive clip long-term.
While data and models don’t guarantee winning bets, they do give you an analytical edge over the average bettor. Over time, a slight bump in win probability will yield profits.
Conclusion
Sports betting data science levels the playing field against the house. By taking an analytical approach, bettors can exploit soft lines and make smarter wagers. While casual fans rely on emotions and hunches, the use of data, trends, and models will provide an advantage.
There is no sure-fire winning strategy, as sports will always contain randomness and variance. However, analytics provide the best chance to beat the vig and come out ahead over the long run. Savvy bettors who effectively leverage the wealth of available data will reap the profits over time.
About Author
